Agent-based simulation with life cycle thinking for exploring policy packages towards sustainability targets

Dr Ryu Koide is a senior researcher at the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan, and is currently based in the Netherlands as a visiting researcher at the Faculty of Technology, Policy, and Management (TPM) of TU Delft. With his background in industrial ecology, policy, and data science, he combines methods from computational simulation and life cycle assessment to explore pathways towards circular and zero-carbon consumer behaviours.

The roles of behaviour changes in zero-carbon and circular transition have been emphasised for decades. However, we still lack a tool to dive into the complexity of consumer behaviours and link it with sustainability targets. In this presentation, I will overview how agent-based modelling (ABM) coupled with life cycle thinking (e.g., life cycle assessment, material flow analysis) could be useful for exploring pathways to decarbonisation and circularity targets. I will first talk about an ABM of circular business models (consumer durables) incorporating bounded-rational decision-making and social influences to assess combinations of circular strategies. After that, I will move on to an overview of an ABM of climate-friendly behaviour (meat consumption) incorporating environmental psychology theories to investigate possible social tipping points and explore demand-side policies achieving climate targets.